03/5/09

80 points away

My first post of this blog on Monday, October 20th, 2008 predicted s&p at 600. We are now less than 80 points away.

The following charts shows that the current market downtrend exceeds the losses (thus far) of the stock market crash of (1929) the great depression:

 

Jon Stewart’s Daily Show also has a very funny and informative piece about CNBC (or CNBS as some refer to it). For the most part I tend to pretty much go by the philosophy that CNBC is a contrary indicator. Whatever they say to do, do the opposite.

One thing I should mention is that Santelli was against the bailouts for wall street also. Most MSM commentators seem to miss this.

03/5/09

Money in your bank may not be as safe as you think

It may be time to think about using your mattress instead of trusting bankers. More at raw story.

Also today the FDIC is requesting new funding. The chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Dodd, plans to introduce a measure that will  raise the borrowing authority to a permanent level of $100 billion and temporarily increase it to $500 billion through Dec. 31, 2010. The FDIC is borrowing tax payer money to cover the banks losses of the tax payers.

02/26/09

Good evidence that S&P headed for 500

While I cannot vouge for its accuracy, the following chart (from generationDynamics) shows that stocks, all of sudden, are very expensive based on their intrinsic value. This with most likely lead the stock market down to normal values and that means an S&P 500 at about 500. The above link has more info.

S&P Price to Earnings

Click on chart to zoom in.

02/24/09

AIG Bailout goes to Goldman Sachs and other banks

Bloomberg says about AIG:

“The insurer made $18.7 billion in payments tied to swaps in the three weeks after AIG’s Sept. 16 bailout, according to another person familiar with the situation. The largest recipients were Societe Generale SA, which got $4.83 billion, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. with $2.97 billion, Deutsche Bank AG with $2.92 billion, Calyon Securities with $1.89 billion and Merrill Lynch & Co. with $1.32 billion, the person said.”

Karl Denninger has a concise wrap up of this on his page.

02/16/09

Are We Chumps?

The bankers think we are chumps!” says Simon Johnson, Former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Here is the link to a very informative Bill Moyers show.

02/13/09

4 Banks go under today

Gerald Celente of trends research predicted runs on banks will occur in February of this year. I believe that prediction was made in the middle of 2008.

Today we have 4 more banks that have gone under making 13 so far this year. It should be clear to the American public that the biggest banks are insolvent. We will most likely see a lot of banks, store chains, malls, restaurants, etc. closing in the near future.

With deflation it might make sense to hide money in your mattress instead of a failing bank. At least move your money to a local bank that has no CDS, MBS, SIV or other toxic asset exposure. That means out of Citibank or Bank of America for sure.

Then there is the stock market, which is starting to look like the 1930’s. Use of this chart as a guide might be useful:

DJII